[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Whats changed is that they arent selling for anything close to 2-3X 2000 pricing. I pulled 5 homes form the MLS across the pricing spectrum. Here’s some homework:
Zillow these 5 homes that sold in the Summer of 2000:
12863 Baywind Point sold for 950K
13259 Winstanley sold for 799K
4926 Sandshore Ct sold for 655K
13268 Larkfield Ct sold for 495K
4080 Carmel Brooks sold for 400K
Right now the low end is up about 75% while the high end is less than 50%. Everything is up roughly 300K which falls in line with what i have always maintained – prices rise in dollars not percentages and the increases are fairly level in dollars across price ranges.
So for 10 years we have what looks to be a 4 to 5% compounded annually appreciation rate. Bet ya didnt expect to see numbers like that. They are downright pedestrian.[/quote]
Totally agree with you about the dollar amount vs. % increase, and have said so in the past.
However, I think the dollar amount is fairly static as we move up because the bubble was fed from the bottom. People who sold SFHs for $500K that were purchased just a few years prior for $150K could take ~$300K-$350K and move up to the next level, or higher. IMHO, that “dollar amount” that you see moving up the housing food chain came largely from the starter and beginning-mid houses which were sold to people with zero-down, “toxic” loans. Without this money from the starter homes, the move-up market will slowly decline. It just takes a while longer because these people in the higher-end homes **do** have a buffer in the form of those large down payments — many of which have been HELOCed/cashed out in the meantime, so they could live off this borrowed cash through the downturn.
