sdrealtor, in jg’s first graph, OFHEO index, my simple ruler test puts the mean at the years 1976 – 2000. I align my ruler between the first data point and 2000, and only the data points of the bubble years are off the ruler line. I’m curious how you lined up your ruler. BTW, it’s nice to have you back.
mls, Please try a little civility in your future posts. My recession prediction for fall 2006 was early. Roubini and Merrill Lynch’s David Rosenberg are predicting a recession in Q1 or Q2 2007. It is like watching paint dry; the economy moves so slow. The dollar’s strength is questioned even by Greenspan and the IMF; a couple years ago, Warren Buffett and George Soros lost billions of dollars betting against the dollar. It is only a matter of when, not if, the dollar falls. I still believe WaMu stock will decline substantially, but we just don’t know when, so it’s hard to short it. Are you a realtor / homeowner? Do you predict a recession too, or a depression as some others on this forum, or continued growth?
