I don’t know how Davidson is doing now – they might be in great financial shape. I only know they were struggling in the mid-1990’s.
And I never said prices would not go down. I just stated that I didn’t believe they would drop anywhere near 30-50%. I think I’m on record a couple of months ago predicting a 10 to 15% drop before it’s over. I may have to update my prediction to 11 to 16% – I’ll think about that.
It seems like there are a lot of interesting things happening in the market. On the one hand, inventory has declined, (like some predicted), but that surprises me. And median prices for resale homes and condos are at the same level they were at 12 months ago, according to the U-T article. The median price for new homes is off 17% from last year, but I think a lot of that is due to low-priced condo conversions.
Even though prices for a lot of properties in established neighborhoods really haven’t declined much, if at all, I do see a lot of weakness in the market in some areas. With interest rates coming down slightly, the ARM resets may not be the #1 problem. I think the biggest problem will be the number of coming foreclosures, especially in newer tract homes, (4S Ranch / San Elijo Hills), and in condos in some areas, (either conversions, or condos in neighborhoods with a lot of converions).
