[quote=sdduuuude]I think that “one day” bit is the key to life right now. Shiff thinks soon. Mish says later.
We have massive debt defaults that Japan did not and in Japan, borrowed money was invested elsewhere. Now, few are borrowing at all to invest anywhere. Same effect, no ? The Fed is practically begging people to borrow and spend and they aren’t doing it.
I’m thinking it’ll take 3 years or so but wouldn’t be terribly surprised if it takes 5.
When do you think that might happen, CBW ?
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I actually have an unconventional view. Many doomsday forecasters are predicting that our debts will bankrupt the nation. I think eventually they are right but their timing might be off. Just like many rational people are predicting a housing bust long before the bubble actually bursts. The bubble always lasts longer than what rational person thinks it would last.
The key I think is dollar. I think the dollar will remain strong when the rest of the world’s economy is still struggling. It is hard for a debt country to have trouble when its currency is still strong. The tide will change only after the rest of the world’s economy recovers before US. It is too far away to predict that right now.
So I would think that US stock market is actually ready for a rally. That might actually improve everything else from real estate to job market. But once that is over, we will still look at the huge debt and possible the start of ramping inflation. That’s when the next down cycle would begin.
