I usually don’t respond to posts that I am in agreement with. I certainly read, take note of them, and add it to the body of data/knowledge I am sifting in making a buying decision. To restate what I have stated in the past . . . .
I do NOT believe we are near a bottom. I agree that the MLS does not represent every home that is on or soon may hit the market, but it is the most reliable hard data . . . all other data is anecdotal. Thus I pay attention to the MLS inventory numbers but know that it is not even the full picture on the supply side of the equation.
ARM resets are important to watch (although I have heard reports that many of the ARMS represented in the charts have been refinanced and the fantastic looking ARM reset charts of 6 – 12 months ago need updating).
Bank owned properties of course will affect comps and prices. However, like SD R said if you actually look at the REO recently closed short sale homes they most likely look nothing like the picture of the ideal home in the ideal neighborhood we are all looking for. They certainly drag down the comps but even then can’t be compared apples to apples in terms of price per sq/ft to a nice well maintained home in the same area.
I have repeatedly said that inventory is only half the equation. My “in search of a crystal ball” signature represents my “search” for where the buy side/demand sentiment is now and where it is headed in the near future. This is the main reason I come to this blog is to add the information/insite here to other data in trying to divine where the demand is headed.
Sure MLS inventory is ONLY ONE PART of the equation. Yet . . . for the past 12 – 18 months we have had steadily increasing MLS inventory. That increase has now stopped and has begun to decrease slightly. That is a tangible change in the market. It doesn’t portend a bottom for all th reasons set forth above. But . . . it is significant and bears watching and noting. Once we have a steadily increasing demand and a steading decreasing inventory . . . it will presage a bottom and be a buy signal. When this will happen . . . NOBODY KNOWS. I don’t think its imminent for the record . . . thus I am still looking while like SD R . . . I have made at least one low ball (not accepted or countered) offer on a REO that met my other criteria.
The only people I argue with are the empty heads that look at hard data I post (not my words) and discount the data and attack me for posting it because it may potentially be interpreted as something other than pure doomsday in the SD RE market. They have a preset hope and agenda (the market is zooming straight down) and anyone who dares upset this apple cart is deemed a threat to this hope and dream the harbour. They really are quite pathetic . . . .
