SD Transplant…I think you’re pretty much on the mark. America’s Fortune 100 companies have become incredibly efficient at exploiting the globe for both topline revenue growth and bottomline cost savings. This is reflected in the solid earnings growth we’ve seen, and for companies that operate in sectors with decent global profit margins, this trend will continue. Watch the sectors and product lines…as they commoditize, companies will have to transform themselves just as they’ve been doing for the last 30 years.
How many Fortune 100 CEO’s are getting quoted saying, “gosh, we really have to completely redirect our business right now because we just can’t make money doing what were doing.” Housing and mortgage CEO’s are crowing this tune, but there are plenty of other sectors where you don’t hear much bitching. That’s a pretty solid sign that times are good and stocks will generally behave in accordance with the historical trend (UP! for those of you who have forgotten).
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the general sentiment on Piggington is at least one to two standard deviation units over to the bearish side. People on here were griping last summer when investment banks were projecting that there were decent gains to be had. Well, what happened? Hmmm…most of my funds are up at least 15% since last summer. Thanks JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs for your thoughtful projections. Good thing I trust your 100+ years of experience and glorious returns more than I trust people I don’t know on the web.
Folks, if in the span of 2003-2007 your portfolio has not made 10%+ per year, you need to ask whether you might be one of the people who for whatever reason significantly underperforms every major stock index. If you are in that category and you want to do better, consider listening to the guys that have been doing this since the advent of modern banking. Don’t listen to “knowledgeable” people on the web. Goldman Sachs does not have half of its assets in a double-inverse index fund, and neither should you!
