Well said. As I posted in response to cooprider the inventory is only half the equation. The problem is that the other side of the equation . . . demand . . . is much harder to measure. The MLS accurately enumerates the actual supply for sale at any given moment. Arguments of impending explosions in inventory due to “phantom inventory” or “ARM reset waves” have been made for over 12 months here and yet the inventory has shrunk. That doesn’t mean that such phenomena won’t bloat the inventory in the future but so far it hasn’t. I’m more of a “show me the money” type when it comes to data. I fully agree that the demand side while hard to quantify is definitely weak. Unfortuneately all you have is either stale hard data (closed sales) or anecedotal current data (broker traffic). I was actually part of the demand last month when I lost out on a lowball bid on a REO in 4S. Even I have since backed off and am continuing to wait for now even as I closely watch and monitor all relevant data. No doubt inventory levels is one dimension but a very important one. Put me in the Pig camp of one who has the money to buy, will buy at some point in the future, and am actively assessing all data in advance of perhaps the most important financial decision I will make in my life. I get the sense that many of these other types are just in the camp of attack even hard data if it suggests anything other than Armageddon is coming to the SD housing market. Their as hapless as the fools that piled in at the top in the sense that this sort of attitude will probably mean the will miss the bottom, assuming they even have the resources to by SD RE at any level and aren’t here just grave dancing
