Would you consider ANYBODY buying in the market today a “savy” buyer? The facts just show that most buyers are indeed not savy.
I never said I considered them savy. That is why I am disagreeing with your statement earlier:
“This measure will simply help those who have money get more property”.
I was using the second quoted statement:
“While the savy buyer measures value of a home with regards to market conditions, pricing, etc… many a buyer, dare I say a majority simply look at the mortgage payment.”
to counter the first quoted statement. I don’t agree with the first quoted statement but agree with the second. I felt you were making slightly contradictory statements. I was also bringing in the fact that many of the non-savy buyers have already shot their wad… of cash to coin a phrase. They don’t have money to buy in now. The ones that have money to buy in are the savy buyers (who probably haven’t contacted a Realtor yet because they know this thing has legs in the downward direction) and wannabe savy who are fence sitters sitting on the edge of their seat. The change in conforming will probably pull the wannabe savies off the fence. Instead of “wannabe savy”, I was calling them green investors or green potential buyers. The green/inexperienced label is a bit nicer than wannabe. My two last sentences in the paragraph referring to green investor/buyers could have been clearer. I consider having money and the wisdom to use it properly going hand in hand because those with money currently but lacking wisdom are soon separated from their money.
Your argument is like a college professor giving a lecture. You use facts, you point out cause and expected affects. It all makes perfect sense.
However the world is not working like that. At least not yet.
I use facts because I know they are the only real counter argument to things that the NAR have been saying as well as other individuals/groups. I know the market is not working rationally and won’t until this thing has spent itself out. That is why I was doing a rational explanation of the liquidity, where the problems are, what is expected to happen and why the fed move and who is it really helping. Somehow people were getting the feeling that the fed dropping the rates was to help them with houses.. and I was trying to pull off the rose colored glasses.. if only for a second. I am not saying that you, SD Realtor, have rose colored glasses on. I do think there are viewers on this board who do.
Anyways again, no argument with your post, except that I am a heck of alot busier then I should be given the market conditions.
I know you are quite busy.. and that is what really scares the crap out of me. I bet the houses are not going for that much of a discount from ’05 prices. There have been several statements on the media that the turn around will occur in ’08 or ’09. I think the flattening that we will see in ’09 will be another suckers play. Neg Ams start resetting afterwards (and therefore the “All hell breaks loose.” statement).
I generally use my facts and analysis on this board because I feel the “quality of clientèle” is better. If I try the logic approach to a member of the general public, it is often too much for them to handle and their eyes glaze over. They then grasp a one of the statements the RE hypers have used to counter. Sorry if I sound like Tanta or Calculated Risk…
