If you try to out think the market generally you lose. I am not saying you are incorrect. I am just trying to say that long long ago I gave up trying to apply my simplistic rational analysis. The marketplace is not controlled by common sense and visibility.
Common sense and visibility no, but it is predictable over the long term (ie. what we knew would happen for housing’s rapid price run-up). Over the short term, all bets are off. It is all manipulation and emotion.
