Schizo inventory will continue to drop. It will not surprise me if it bottoms out in the 15-16k range by the end of the year. I will not be surprised to see a bump up in sales in the spring as well. This is how inventory cycles work right?
Did you want to address the drop in sales volume or are you going to sidestep around that point?
Look I understand and agree with you that there is a heavy heavy bear bias here. Lots of people do think the sky is falling. If your lucky cyphire will invite you to his re-enforced bunker (jk cyphire)… still though, I think just looking at inventory alone is somewhat short sighted, especially if you are hitting on only 2 months worth.
Being out in the trenches I cannot tell you how many people who have considered selling have indeed just packed it in. They do very much believe that things will improve this spring or next spring and will go on the market then. I am not saying there will be an inventory explosion, I am just saying that just measuring inventory is not enough.
Would you agree with the following?
– Sales volumes are down.
– Inventory is cyclical.
– Lots of foreclosures are still ahead of us.
– The economy has a higher probability of slowing down rather then speeding up in the next 1-2 years.
So looking at those 4 basic statements do you agree or not with them? If you do agree with them, do you think housing prices will increase or decrease?
Now, once again, the frustration level is high for people looking in nicer areas and I sense you fall into that boat. How long those areas will continue to hold price levels where they are is anyone’s guess. The big bears here would say no way can they continue to do that. I am sure if you dig around in posts 1-2 years ago you can find predictions of vast housing devastation predicted for 2007. I believe these areas will come down but I just am not sure when… I believe later rather then sooner for MAJOR declines there. However I definitely do not believe we are at bottom or near bottom if that is what you are trying to imply.
