You’re on to something, but I think (like others here do) that you’re overestimating your skills. What you’re right about is that timing the RE market should be easier than timing the stock market, because RE moves much more slowly. But it’s still not a cakewalk.
Let me give you an example: the London propery market has been as overvalued as our own local market. After rate raises from the Bank of England in 2004, the London market had a very lousy year in 2005 (very much like SD in 2006). All analyst said: “OK, it’s finally going down now, look out below!”. So the market dipped a bit in 2005, but came back strong in 2006 (up 10%). Now, this is still overvalued as hell, even more so than before. Everybody is scratching their heads, not knowing what will happen next. All analysts agree that the market has to go down, sooner or later, but this year’s surge was a complete surprise. Timing that sort of market is a fool’s game.
