Schahrzad, thank you for sharing the article. I think you make many good points, but I have to disagree about your view that predicting the bottom is easy. If it were possible to time the market, we could make billions with little or no risk.
Market timing, which simply means being able to know when markets peak or bottom, is an impossible dream.
I think Toll’s (the builder) and Bredemayer’s (the appraiser) advice is somewhat biased because of their occupations. However, I agree with the general tone of the article: the house you live in should not be viewed as an investment vehicle. That sort of misguided thinking in the last 5 years resulted in many people buying more house than they could afford, inflating the bubble in the process.
Althugh we know that in areas like S.D. prices are heading down, the process won’t be monotonous: there’ll be drops, flat periods, some reversals (yes, it happens when people think they “see the bottom” and start buying only to see prices drop again). The bottom may be 3 years from now, or may be 15. We will know only after the fact, as has always been the case.
