Scarlett yes I would say that if our international creditors continue to fund our debt then yes, rates will be kept artificially low. The secondary market for mortgages is essentially a socialized market backed by taxpayer money. Institutional and private investment disappeared.
Think of it this way. You buy a home. Wells or BofA originates your loan. It is then sold off on the secondary market to who? Well most likely one of the GSEs. Maybe even the Fed. Where did that money come from? In this day and age it was just tossed on our tab.
Furthermore our administration is wholeheartedly spending money and building up debt faster then any of the previous ones. This is what the majority of people in our country want. It is much easier to be taken care of then to take care of things.
So yes as long as everyone plays nice the dominoes will not fall. Todays dollar compared to 10 years ago dollar is about worth 62 cents. When the dominoes do fall we will see substantially higher rates. There may be some political horsetrading to lessen the blow. For instance maybe Taiwan will be a sacrificial lamb to China in exchange for another few years of credit extension.
Not sure if you lived here in the 1980s mortgages of 12% and higher were the NORM. If you have a big cashpile you are stoked. If you do not then you are screwed.
I am not really saying buy or dont buy now. Many people are buying now for various reasons however none of them that I know are buying because they think it is a market bottom. If you look at the most bearish posts on this site, those posters harp and harp on the fact that knifecatching buyers are doing so because they think it is a market bottom. There is a blind eye and ear to the fact that people buy homes (and other things for that matter) for other reasons then timing a market. Another hard to swallow fact is that alot of these buyers do have the resources to be able to do this. Even lately there is the “overbearing spouses” reasoning, that people are all buying because they are forced to buy thier overbearing spouse.
So whatever the reason is, people are buying, for better or for worse.
