[quote=Scarlett]. . . But it’s highly unlikely that in a neighborhood (not just 1 block) more than half of the adult professionals with kids will move out in short time span – AND that no people with kids will move in.[/quote]
Scarlett, I think a neighborhood is more likely to change if most of its residents are worker-families. It changes because workers lose their jobs (and eventually, house). It changes because workers change jobs and sell. It changes because a family grows and needs a bigger place, so sells. In a neighborhood of mostly retirees, the population is more stable.
[quote=Scarlett]One wouldn’t buy in a ghetto/gang area just because it’s cheap and close to work, even if it’s a very decent house, now would they? On the same token, those gang people may simply decide to move away,no?[/quote]
Well, first Scarlett, there are none of these areas that I am aware of in close proximity to either you or your spouse’s work locations so this issue doesn’t really affect you if you purchase in close proximity to work.
But to address your question, the presence of “gang people” or the perception of “ghetto” is in the eye of the beholder-buyer. As far as I am aware (not sure about O’side though), SD doesn’t have any “ghettos” or a proliferation of “gang people” concentrated in any particular area. This type of activity was pretty much “cleaned up” by patient, diligent foot-soldier SDPD neighborhood patrol in the mid-late ’80’s. Some of these dedicated officers have been patrolling the same streets for 25+ years. Many SDPD officers own several (or many) rental SFR’s in their longtime patrol areas and reside there as well, making it easy for them to manage their rental properties themselves. Buyers buy property in ALL areas, especially if they are already highly familiar with an area, i.e. grew up there or have relatives living there. Many buyers are VERY comfortable sending their own children to the exact same schools they attended, with no regard to “API scores,” because relative-caregivers live in the area.
[quote=Scarlett]. . . However when I pull SDL listing of homes of 500K – maybe one or two come up every few months. And usually they are not that great, i.e. quite a few of the desirable features are missing, or it’s a lot of work (which we can’t afford). That IS still expensive FOR ME. In the mean time I can pull out many more listings like that in PQ, CMR or SR. You are saying it’s UC where I should buy. Yes I know I am buying only ONE house – which is why I keep my eye on MM and UC even with the very slim inventory in my price range. But I want to be happy with the house and if I really settle ONLY on UC I may have to wait a LOOOONG time before getting one I like.[/quote]
You seem to have been waiting a long time already, Scarlett. If you are trying to get all your “desirable features” in one property, you will not find them in your price range without making another, more onerous tradeoff (i.e. commute/heat). Only you know when it’s the right time to get serious about buying a house and when that time comes, you will come across the exact same issues we are discussing today, except that the interest rates may not be as favorable, making your price-range less. Yes, some of the aforementioned areas on your “list” could fall in value more as distressed property is sold off in those areas creating lower sales comps. But don’t expect to see UC take a nosedive. I just looked at SD Transplant’s site showing a map of distressed properties he/she posted today. According to it, there are three 4/2/2 SFRs currently situated in UC where a Notice of Sale has been filed and two SFRs where a Notice of Default has been filed.
I’m not saying you should buy anywhere in particular, Scarlett. You have to be comfortable with the property and commute.
[quote=Scarlett]PQ, SR, CMR, and west MM are not, by any means, inferior locations.[/quote]
No, they are not “inferior locations” in and of themselves but are “inferior locations to UC,” especially in your case, since you work near UC. That’s why UC is more expensive. You pay for what you get. In UC, you get “location” over a more modern floor plan (in your price range). It has nothing to do with “greedy” UC sellers and everything to do with location. You are free to cut a deal in UC and won’t know if a seller will accept what you offer unless you try.
Location is the most important factor in determining value of RE in CA coastal counties. There’s nothing anyone can do about this.
It is what it is . . . and this is coming from the most pragmatic bear you will ever find.
