[quote=scaredyclassic]what if the future is nothing like the past?[/quote]
Actually, as long as the future deviates from American’s past, we are toasted. The belief that “buy and hold” is a sound strategy has strong survivor-ship bias, since they focus on successful America and Europe returns. Back in 1900, an investor might have believed Russia and China to be good long-term bets, only to see his savings completely wiped out by revolution. And in almost any other countries, you often see stock market takes more than 10 years to recover from its peak bubble price (which is arguably where we are right now), and often it could take 30-70 years.
However, which asset class is risky free? You have to put money somewhere. Diversification would certainly help.
