Say for the sake of argument that countries will do what is in their own best interest – unless there is an “influence” that prevents them from taking what they want. Russia does not want NATO in its back yard holding the US missle defense shield rockets within a few miles of its borders. This leaves Poland and Georgia as potential targets for Russian “desires”.
The Bushies have been telling Georgia we will support you in your efforts to maintain a soverign border, but when Georgia invaded its “problem” provinces and started killing Peace Keepers and people with Russian passports – we (the U.S.) blinked. Saakashvili oversteped his “influence”. The US is spread too thin to really do anything, except get a few U.S. peace keepers killed and utter some thinly vailed threats. The only other alternative is outright war against the Russian Tank brigades.
The U.S. plan to fight a Russian Tank attack against Germany is to immediately go Nuclear. I am guessing, but Georgia and Germany pose many of the same tactical problems for the U.S.and would result in the same analysis Too far from home to win a protracted conventional war. So expect to see Russian Tanks in Poland unless NATO stops trying to put missles there. Or possibly Russia countering with missles in Cuba – again.