[quote=rockingtime]Just curious, How do you define coastal california ?
Would whole of SD be qualified as coastal ?
For my perspective, everything is cyclical and nothing keeps going up for ever. This gives us opportunity.
A lot of people tried to convince me otherwise about SD real estate in 2007, I disagreed with them and bought in 2011.
The first house I bought in 2001, I sold it in 2007ish..
I am sure, my current house valuation would come down with due time
My guess: Wages are going to be stagnant at best which would affect the housing prices as well.[/quote]
Yes, in relation to inland CA counties, SD County is considered “coastal.” However, the TRUE CA “coastal market” is within 2-3 miles from the coast, IMO, given varying land elevations creating coastal views showing whitewater. The “coastal market” is also located on the western side of major geographical boundaries such as freeways and RR tracks. A property with a “peek’ view of blue water which is located several miles inland from the ocean isn’t really considered to be in located in a true “coastal market.” But ALL coastal CA counties have more temperate weather than inland counties and thus their RE prices reflect that.
Consider the vast pricing differences between LA County and it’s neighboring county to the east, San Bernardino County. Even similarly-sized houses on the LA side of the county line are worth nearly 2x as much as those on the other side of the county line (SB County).
There are good reasons for this, not the least of which is much better zoning (less “mixed use” zoning) and less density in the part of LA County bordering SB and RIV Counties. Many inland CA counties and micro-areas within those counties where the land is cheaper still have a lot of mixed-use zoning on the books which lowers the value of ALL surrounding properties. (Part of unincorporated Spring Valley is a good example of mixed-use zoning in SD County.)
In 2007, SD County’s residential RE market had already started to come down a little in price but did not really hit bottom until the last quarter of 2009.
By the last quarter of 2010, the market was already beginning to rise in some (not all) areas. This wholly depended upon the level of distress in the micro area. By 2011, many “coastal” micro markets had already bounced back or were beginning to.
I DO still think there is opportunity out there today …. for CASH buyers who have the ability and access to tools to do a lot of DIY.
I do not believe stagnant wages (or even an “employee’s market”) affect RE values in well-established areas of coastal counties. This phenomenon MAY affect home values in newer tracts which are adjacent to white-collar suburban or exurban job centers. It does NOT affect values in the most desirable, most established urban/coastal areas of coastal CA counties because a very large portion of the sales occurring within them are all-cash sales and another portion of those sales are buyers using a >50% downpayment. In these markets, the typical buyer is NOT Joe Q. Workerbee, his spouse and 2.3 minor kids.
In rural/semi-rural coastal CA counties, the bulk of the residential sales there are all-cash sales. There aren’t any high-paying white-collar jobs within commuting distance of those towns/small cities (except maybe local govmt jobs). Thus, the bulk of the buyers in these markets today are “retirees” or second-home buyers.
RT, if you’re depending on “stagant wages” for your next CA RE buying “opportunity,” you’ll need to choose your shopping parameters very carefully, imho.
