[quote=Rich Toscano] That’s not even in the issue, in my opinion. There is no chance that things will be better 20 years from now because people’s 401ks were propped up today. Long-term prosperity is based on productivity growth, and the stuff of this bailout (unsound money, massive debt accrual and deficits, handouts to incompetent and semi-corrupt companies that should have gone bankrupt, etc etc)… that’s not good for productivity growth.[/quote]
Rich, I agree completely with your statement. But, in all honesty, can we look forward to productivity growth? Until 30 years go, prosperity resulted from what we manufactured here and sold here and elsewhere in the world. Since then, domestic productivity has been steadily reduced as more corporations moved operations and jobs overseas. The “prosperity” of the 90s and aughts resulted, in large part, from lax monetary policy, widespread speculation, and limitless lending. The employment during this time didn’t come from long-term manufacturing jobs, but from home construction and “service” industries that were the first to fall when the bottom fell out of housing and credit dried up, i.e. the sources of revenue for those industries.
To my rather unsophisticated way of thinking, a return to prosperity as we’ve known it is not possible. I don’t care how low the corporate tax rate goes, corporations are going to continue moving jobs overseas. Americans cannot live on minimum wage, not that it matters since corporations are able to pay much, much less than that to their workers in third-world nations. Manufacturing jobs that provided much of the prosperity of the past are a thing of the past.
To be honest, the loss of manufacturing jobs not only should have been foreseen by the government, but should have been part of a conscious effort to change the labor landscape of our nation in order to meet the challenges of the future. The boomer generation witnessed the enormous amount of postwar technological development, and produced the largest and best-educated labor force ever. We were in a prime position to move from a manufacturing economy to one based on technological development. However, we stood idly by, not only watching other nations surpass us in research and development, but also keeping our children from a place at the table, by neglecting to educate them to a competitive level. With completely straight faces, we continue to claim credit for winning WWII and landing on the moon – feats that were, in fact, accomplished by our parents and grandparents.
I agree completely with your argument. But, without a major course correction (and possibly not even with that), I just don’t see us avoiding a collision with the iceberg. And, yes, Brian, I see a “lost decades” scenario.
