Rich, fwiw, I think you pretty much summed it up as I understand it. The only thing that I would say w/regard to dragging it out is it may make it difficult for some people to ride it out.
If the market recovered quickly, those hanging on can try to get out unscathe. But protracted recovery — I know you say unemployment is a lagging indicator — but if the unemployment continues, it may have an effect on some of those just hanging on trying to ride it out until market conditions improve to dispose of their place. In which case, for those who may have trouble riding it out, may just cause a further increase in delinquent/distressed properties.
Seems like a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. Add to the mix the longer this takes, the more there will be those intentionally defaulting. They’re not seeing a temporary, quick rebound and they’re seeing more people living for free.
Maybe the plan is to trickle it in until inflation hits.
