Remember how slowly the top, then the turnaround came ?
Think of this market as a large ship. It takes a long time to turn. In San Diego the initial decline in sales started in 2004, prices continued their climb through 2005, though more modestly than previous, flattening and signs of distress on the margins in 2006, full-fledged decline in 2007. SO it took nearly 3 years from slowing sales to what I think is the steepest part of the decline.
Once sales start to increase, I think it will take about 2-3 years to show up in terms of solid uptick in prices.But first we have to go through more downside and some flattening. I wouldn;t expect a rapid sustained turnaround to be very quick..
However, I DO expect people to claim in Spring 2008 that we have started turning around, but they will simply be faked out by typical seasonal (relative) strength.
