regarding Valenica by California West. Each lot purchased at $252k, rough estimate of $100/sqft for ~3000 sqft home = total cost of $550k for the builder.
the lot size is very similar to Davidson’s old development adjacent to Camino Del Sur, on Via Montecristo and New Park Terrance. Those are about 500 sqft smaller than your target size. But they can still help serve as guides. Those resales with landscape and interior furnishings all done are going for high $500k as short sales. As for 3000 sqft homes, look at those back loading garage homes on Concord Ridge, those are going for the low $600k as resales.
Looks like CalWest have been selling Valencia at low 700k. Fair price for a Valencia should be in the high $500k range, especially given the high mello roos and HOA (I know you are already adding those in, but still.) And remember, new homes should always be less than adjacent relatively new resales.
now as for thoughts in regard to schools and weather…
while people will pull up the API and argue Carmel Valley schools are better, my opinion is Del Sur schools are essentially comparable.
as for weather, a few miles inland is actually in your favor. The marine layer can really make coastal summers a major bummer. A friend that bought in Carmel Valley rarely uses his HOA pool even during the summer because of the overcast and the low temps.
in regard to better value, while given the type of demand we are unlikely going to see drops in value in Carmel Valley, you could look at 92127 homes and see potential bargains that will bounce back in value in the long term.
