Real GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is today
