The credit crunch, its impact on home buying, bankruptcies of mortgage lenders with attendent unemployment of thousands, distress among home builders etc., are all strong indicators of downturn. But when the largest low end retailer has problem meeting expectations, I think we are in severe distress. What you are seeing is the result of households running out of spendable cash flat out. Obviously, it will take a while to restore normal spending pattern again. Since consumer spending is 2/3 of economy, the jump from Wal-Mart’s distress to general Economic distress is pretty easy. I am fairly confident in predicting a recession before middle of 2008.
