Going by the Piggington thesis that all analysis be data driven, the basic data to support the collapse theory is the ARM reset schedule that has been much discussed at this site. If I remember, it is bimodal with the first wave resetting in 24 months (Jan 2007 reference) and the second one in 60 months. Accordingly, the first fallout should be around Jan 2009. By then about a million mortgages (conservatively) would have defaulted and foreclosure process would have started. Depending on the speed of foreclosure process, when the homes will become REO may vary. But once you have million plus homes in REO, the pressure on the financial institutions will be very great to liquidate and “clean up” their balance sheets. This is how I remember the Savings & Loan crisis unfolded. A temporary government agency called Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was formed to liquidate assets at whatever price. I have seen real estate liquidated by RTC at 20 cents on $. Strange thing is there were NO takers many times at 20 cents! You have to wait till 2009 for the eye of the (First) storm to pass through. What we are seeing are just the early showers.