None of what you write surprises me in the least. The one thing I will comment on, is that you should expect to see small spurts of buying even though the overall trend is going to remain down for quite a while. You see this in a bear market in the stock exchanges too.
Personally, I fully expect to see the beginnings of a bounce this spring. There will be plenty of people that think there will be a turnaround, and they’ll want to get in before the rush. But the fundamentals are still exactly where your banker pointed out they are. And that means this spring bounce won’t hold. Personally, I don’t expect to see seller capitulation in the higher priced areas until fall 2008.
