[quote]As a rule of thumb, if a micromarket has great schools, it hasn’t returned to fundamentals compared to the rest of the county.[/quote]
I don’t want to talk about fundamentals, especially with regard to an area that’s such an outlier … but generally speaking, yes, micromarkets with good schools have depreciated less than comparable markets with not-so-good schools. Also, distance from prospective employment seems to matter. There are two major areas where employment is still strong, even in this economy: Sorrento Valley (including Miramar) and Camp Pendleton. Sorrento Valley pulls the 56 corridor and the coast (and some hippier areas like Hillcrest and North Park), Camp Pendleton pulls the 76 corridor and Fallbrook. The further you get from these two, the worse things are. If we expect prices to return to long-term trends, there are some good deals to be had in places like Valley Center, Bonita and Alpine.
According to this logic, north Poway is more affordable than other places with good schools, because it’s relatively in the middle of nowhere. If you compare a house that was worth 500k in 1997 in north Poway and a house worth the same amount in 1997 in Del Mar, the one in Poway is cheaper now.
