qcomer wrote: “However, there is a reason that the best of fund managers with the best of tools available, fail to time the markets correctly and hence fail to beat it consistently.”
I actually agree with yoru overall sentiment that the market is nearly impossible to time. However, I disagree about it being “beatable”, or the best managers being able to beat the market reliably. Check out John Keeley of Keeley Small Cap Value (KSCVX), Robert Gardiner of Wasatch Micro Cap (WMICX), David Williams of Excelsior Value and Restructuring (UMBIX),
Ron Muhlenkamp of Muhlenkamp (MUHLX), Rich Fentin of Fidelity Value (FDVLX), John Montgomery of Bridgeway Funds (BRUSX), and Ron Baron of Baron Funds (BARAX). All have beaten the market over the past 10 years… not necessarily every single year, but overall, money put into them in 1996 would have done far better than an index fund.
Of course, many are small cap, which do tend to outperform large cap, as they have more risk.
I own UMBIX in my Roth IRA. It’s treated me well so far 🙂
