PS you wrote:
“I’m thrilled that the stock market is going up,”.
I am sorry but I don’t believe you. If you own inverse funds, you would be rather happier if market was going down. It’s natural because the loss that you have incurred is real and the profit you are expecting is thin air no matter how sure you are that it will materialize.
You then wrote: “By next spring, when the Dow is down 30%, my 2005 inverse Dow fund will be up 60%.”
I am amazed by your confidence. I cannot even predict with 100% confidence that Dow will be down in March 2007 rather predict it will be down exactly x percentage. What makes money in markets is skepticism and what loses money in markets is over confidence. Comments like above, if posted on your investment advisory letter, will make investors laugh.
A month or two back, you were almost sure about $100 oil and that COP is cheap at P/E of 6 at $65, right? Also, when this 3 month rally started, you said it wouldn’t last 2 weeks and posted Fleckenstein’s opinion. Let’s face it, we all can be wrong, there are no 100% certainties in markets or life. Sometimes I just wonder how similar your posts in tone are to comments from George W Bush.
PS wrote: “whoever these investors are who are driving up the prices are obviously not aware we are a Bubble Economy ready to pop.”
Poway, I would have said that these investors maybe don’t agree with the theory of a bubble economy and a recession in the next year. But do you really think all investors putting money in markets in last few months are igorant, dumb or lacking in research and just don’t see the dangers the US economy is facing? Do you think it is possible for investors to maybe see the same data that you see but infer different conclusions?
I hate making personal comments about people and only do so when I really feel someone can benefit from it. Right now, I feel you can use some healthy skepticism about your point of view. And I hope you didn’t invest 100% of your money in inverse funds.
