PS – Re: rent data. Just use your rent as a proxy. A renter is much more in tune with price of rents than data services.
JG – The “noise” on the filter appears to be about +/- 5000 out of 180K or about 3%. TO avoid falling victim to noise, one would have to wait for a significant move in the prediction relative to the noise. E.G. 2x the noise level or 6%. One could reduce the noise by averaging, but would give up the look-ahead capability. How far ahead is the prediction ahead of prices, assuming I need a 6% move that is confirmed over more than 1 month ?
Anyway – I don;t think hitting the exact bottom is important. Getting in a little late (e.g. 1997-1999) would not have been too bad, would it ?
