My median price example was not meant to counter your emerging approach for timing, I just want to help you out by pointing out that whatever factor(s) you use may have a seasonal pattern to them.
Accounting for these factors will help avoid buying on a “local maximum” or “local minimum” in the signal you are monitoring.
Months of inventory takes in two factors : number of sales and number of properties on the market. Both of the underlying factors (sales & # of homes for sale) will have seasonal variations that must be taken into account.
For the record I think you CAN determine when you are in the neighborhood of a bottom or peak in real estate. However, I don’t think it matters much in the long run (10 years)if you hit it 5% too soon or 5% too late, as long as you buy at a time when the relative costs of renting vs buying are relatively close.
I don’t think you can hit anything within 1-2% (or even know whether you’ve hit it within 1%) when the variations are in the 1-2% range.
