I like Bill Fleckenstein’s work. He was a writer at one time on RealMoney.com
All of the investing options you mention will make money in certain time frames. What I am trying to convey overall is that it is a mistake to dismiss investment vehicles that appear to be out of favor as “univestable”. In addition, the “invest all of your assets/risk in this category now” in gold, etc. is not unlike all of the discussion here about what a large number of residential property buyers have done in San Diego since 2004.
In order to narrow down your choices, you need to decide what time frame you are comfortable with for your investments. If you only want investments that historically work over a 5 – 10 year investment period, then it greatly reduces investment options. If you want to take advantage of the tendency for vicious up moves in a bear stock market, be ready to be in and out (long not short) in just a few days.
I suggest both approaches with portions of your investable cash, otherwise known as divesifying. But you need to identify what your time frames are for the investment first.
Be ready to sell the short-term time frame investments when it is not working out or when it has worked to your targeted sell point. Yesterday I invested in an international stock index fund with a target sell point of 3% above my buy in point. Depending on how things work out in the Middle East and Mr. Ben Bernanke (FED) this week, I may grab a quick 3% and be out. Yes, I am buying when everyone else is saying “sell”.
The long-term investments will be like watching paint dry, but they will be safe.
