[quote=pfflyer]I agree with you about longtime owners. I wonder what the percentage of these homes are pre 1978? How many were overstretched owners and are in shadow inventory? Not many listed in 92109 or 92037….[/quote]
As to pre April ’78 “original” owners in those two zips, I will take an educated guess and say it is 35-40% in 92037 and 25-30% in 92109 (SFR’s only). Only a few condo complexes (w/HOA’s) existed prior to April ’78. Most multifamily units back then were rental apartments.
I didn’t include in my previous post that pre-April ’78 owners do not have to occupy their original property … that is, take the HOEX on their property taxes, in order to keep their “Prop 13 status.” They can let other family live in it or rent it their property out.
I don’t think either of the above zip codes have too much of a problem with “overstretched owners.” The “overstretched owner” in those areas more often than not took out a 2nd TD or HELOC during the “bubble era” of which nearly all was spent on remodel/rehab (making their property more saleable or “worth more” today) or actually purchased during the bubble era for a grossly inflated price and MUST SELL NOW (cannot hang on for whatever reason) or be foreclosed upon.
Remember that an “inflated bubble price” in 92109 and 92037 would not be as “inflated” as some other non-coastal areas.
The reason I believe the above to be true is that persons who buy SFR’s in those areas (in 92037 especially) typically DO NOT need “cash-out” mortgage money to “live on” and often DO NOT depend at all or solely on W-2 income to qualify to purchase a property there.
Condos in those zip codes likely have their share of distress and I don’t know if it is more or less than other areas of SD County with comparable condo values.
I’m not sure if there will be a “bottom” in these two areas (SFR’s) and if there is, it is already here or has come and gone. They are areas of unique properties (some with expansive views) close in and close to nice beaches. The “bottom” in these areas is in the art of the deal. Your mileage may vary dependent on seller motivation and your RE agent’s (or, if purchasing FSBO, your) negotiating skills.
pfflyer, since 92109 is one of your choice areas, I believe jpinpb has done extensive and lengthy research on distress there in the past (not sure if it was on condos, SFR’s or both). She may be able to give a more educated opinion than me as to whether she thinks properties in that zip have reached “bottom.”
