Peter Shiff was just on tube and predicted economic collapse and gold $2000. PS was, I believe, quoting him and Roubini several years back. Peter is stating that Govt should get of the way and let companies collapse, let unemploymnt double. That is why PS and Shiff bring out the vitriolic respone from most people. Shiff is almost joyous in prediciting economic collapse. He has this condescending attitude and will never acknowledge when he was wrong. When called about dollar and gold calls being so wrong today, be blamed hedge funds for short term move, but claims that he is still right. Guy Adami, (CNBC) said “when you are betting for the sun to collapse and it does, what are you left with?”
Then Louis Yamada, top voodoo chartist for last 4 years straight comes on states that charts have been warning for year and a half of this doom and she states that we have double top at 1500 for sp500. S&P 500 closed today below the closing low of 776.76 logged on Oct. 9, 2002, to its lowest close since April 14, 1997. Louis says next stop is 600 and if that doesnt hold then 400. When asked about any sector or asset, she said NOTHING is working or stable. In 1981-82, the consumer staples were basing and ready for strong move up, but not today. top after top, everything going down.
Up until this fall, consumer spending was so strong that it made Peter’s doomsday talk seem silly, esp after gold dropped from 1000 to 700 and still isnt moving up. However, all the fundamental guys like Buffett and me are getting wiped out.
Bill Fleckenstein, longtime bear stated that he is about to close his 10 year old short fund, but he said its too early to buy, wouldnt or couldnt offer signal, but said maybe in a year.
I think there is no reason to buy stocks until techinal signal emerges. (Chris or barnaby33 can give the greenlight) Barnaby gave the simple call about waiting till 50 day moving average crosses the 200 moving average for buy/sell signal. May not be perfect and will miss bottom by 3-5 months, but it will protect against 52% or 70% drops.
If this doom continues, Real estate even on the coast can keep going down. Just make sure you dont need to sell for years. With 10 treasury yields collapsing to 50 year low at 3%, maybe mortgage rates will collapse too and stablize housing??
Maybe this is the capitulation everyone is waiting for, so my post probably marks the buy of a lifetime. Cheers. 🙂
