Personally, I’m looking for mid-December as a watershed moment. We’ll get November’s numbers ~ Dec. 15, and if that median is 466k or below, the YOY decline will be double digits (518k to 466k is almost exactly 10%).
When the headlines begin showing double digit YOY declines it should drastically cut down on the greater fools out there who are still overpaying for SD RE. Downward pressure on price snowballs with fewer sales, and next springs comps are even lower.
November’s median being at 466k (or lower) will accelerate the panic.
