People don’t call economics the “dismal” science for nothing. Forecasts were never to be relied upon. Plus, reputation risk make people risk averse — that is, if you are making a wrong forecast, but are among the many who make a wrong forecast, you are fine career wise. If you make a DIFFERENT forecast and it turned out to be wrong, even if you are just a couple of years ahead, then your career might take a hit. Herd mentality has its benefits.
In addition, if you are a known figure, then you also need to be careful about the impact of what you say. Many people pointed out the importance of sentiment in driving prices up or down. A public figure would always want to be careful not to be the perceived “cause” of such panic. During a time when things are about to turn bad, the normal tendency is to be “soothing”, so you’d read a lot of “soft-landing” talk. I just view this as part of the psychology of the cycle.
Only truly independent minds speak without the burden of the above.
