[quote=pemeliza]I agree that 1988 pricing was probably 15% lower than the 1990 peak and that is supported by sales records.
“I figured 1988 was near the top, then figured another 15% or so for the actual top in 1989/1990, then figured it was reached again around 2000”
It almost sounds like you are suggesting that the nominal top of the prior 1990 peak would have also been the nominal top of the current cycle around 2000-2001 had it not been for the credit bubble which extended the cycle for an additional 7 years. Why should the top of this cycle (which should have ended in 2000-2001 as you suggest) have been nominally the same as the top of the prior cycle in 1990?[/quote]
Good question.
Wages for the masses have moved very little since the late 1980s.
In particular, the steady
increase in the housing price inflation rate since the early
2000s is closely associated with the steady increase in the
money supply during the same period. Overall, housing
price inflation appears to lead CPI inflation.
I don’t have much time now, but will get back to this with some more info about my theories on house price inflation, wage inflation/deflation, demographic shifts (from wealthy Baby Boomers entering the housing market en masse in the 1970s, to the formation of dual-income households, and how that’s affected prices and wages), income and wealth accumulation trends, and credit expansion…also, how credit expansion has pulled economic activity forward for many decades, and we now have to pay the price.
