PC, what I noticed in that article and in the Sacramento one is the extent that NODS are going to trustee sale.
If they had 2400 NODS in Jan-May and 1440 Trustee sales, it’s looking like 47.5% or so of the NODs to to foreclosure. Actually higher if one assume NODs are increasing slightly on average month to month. Sacramento had similar numbers.
San Diego in Jan-Apr had 5820 NODS and 1978 Foreclosures, a 34% rate.
Back at Innovest’s foreclosure statss for the 90s bottom and we see that San Diego previously lept from a 30% going to foreclosure to a 50% going to foreclosure in Q1 ’94 and stayed there for 3 years.
More importantly, the Trustee deed volume was about 10% below todays. I think that puts it at about even when adjusting for population growth. adjusted.
Looking at the ARM reset curve and adding an a Bakersfield like NOD to Foreclosure rate paints a very grim picture given were already at a population adjusted foreclosure rate equal to the bottom of the last cycle and this cycle is just starting.
