[quote=partypup]
Now, that said: I am intrigued by your prediction of a deflationary spiral. And since I just won a bet with a friend today (last July, when the Dow was at 12,500, I bet him that it would be below 7,000 by 2010), I am encouraged to make another: I’ll wager you that by summer 2010 this country will be in the grips of an inflationary – not deflationary – spiral. And just to be fair, let’s say that the determination as to whether or not we are in such a spiral will be made based on what is detected and documented in the mainstream news – because if these chumps are able to pick up on it, then you can be quite sure that it will be as plain to all of us as the nose on your face. Are you in?[/quote]
By 2010 the U.S. could once again be experiencing inflation. I think it might be hard to distinguish between a spiral and normal inflation though. What if the price of food doubles in the first half of 2010, but house prices are still declining?
I would rather bet against you on something that is more easily measured. How about we bet that there are no news stories of grocery stores in California running out of food due to supply chain disruptions that are a result of economic catastrophe between now and the end of 2010? Note that this would exclude instances where grocery stores go out of business or run out of food due to natural disasters. It would also exclude instances where grocery stores place limits on how much product people can buy, like they did with rice last year. In the penultimate outcome, there is a news story where I (TheBreeze) and some other hapless individual (or individuals) literally brawl over the last can of chicken soup at Ralph’s.
If I win, you donate $50 to smiletrain.org. I will donate $50 to the cause of your choice if you win.
By the way, you are sounding awfully, awfully cocky. Perhaps your predictive powers are as great as you think. Or perhaps you are due for a comeuppance. Let’s hope you can withdraw your fiat if TSHTF while you are on one of your trips:
