In my industry, there is a general acknowledgement that San Diego is running out of large, quality, development grade land. There are still some large parcels, to be sure, scattered throughout the county, but they are definitely diminishing. Most development will be “infill”, where they are filling in the gaps or putting small parcels together to make a development.
Does that mean that it will have an effect on the price of San Diego land? Probably, probably not. To anybody who argues that San Diego running out of land is a reason why housing prices should go up higher, I would respond that it is probably more complicated than that. We might have a situation like San Francisco, where they have already built out the entire area and their “sphere of influence” starts expanding into neighboring counties. For that to happen, however, would take about another 50 to 75 years in my opinion.
The large swaths of land that can support a large development are located in Alpine, Valley Center, way northeast of Escondido, Lakeside, Santee. As you can see, those places aren’t exactly on the first quality location places to live.
Scarcity of land is one small factor, but it is not the only factor.
