“otherwords, can I expect the price of building a new custom house to decline as the overall housing market does, or is that not borne out over history?”
Yes. When home prices are high, everyone is building. The demand for contractors & construction labor is high.
You want to build your house when prices hit “the bottom”. At that time, contractors will be begging for your business & go out of their way to do a good job with minimal delays.
Also, the prices of construction materials & labor will be lower.