[quote=ocrenter]The problem with China-nay-sayers is they do not understand the Chinese playbook, which was pirated word for word from the South Korean and Taiwanese editions. The scary part for most folks is that South Korea + Taiwan = a single province in China in population size.
The Chinese is following the same pathway paved by the South Koreans and the Taiwanese. Both of those countries were under what we would call “capitalist authoritarian regimes” who guided growth and development until the economy took off.
Because China is so big, you got to look at its ~40 provinces/municipalities as 40 countries individually.
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OCR: Why no mention of the Japanese Keiretsu or MITI? I would hazard a guess, but I’m curious as to why neither is mentioned along with SoKorea and Taiwan.
As far as comparing SoKorea and Taiwan to China, you’d want to start with comparing the competency of the actual governments themselves. China, like the Soviet Union before, is incompetent and at all levels of government. No other way to put it. While SoKorea and Taiwan did indeed emplace something approximating centrally planned autarky, it doesn’t come close to China’s Communist Party in terms of “policies and procedures”.
Beyond that, I’d offer that China’s educational system is nowhere the task necessary to bring a country of that size, populated with largely subsistence farmers, forward to a point where the average person is earning $20K – $25K per year. Where does China rank in terms of Top 100 International Universities?
You mention dealing with each of the 40 Chinese provinces as a separate city-state or country. I wouldn’t disagree with that assessment, but, unfortunately, the Chinese government does NOT treat each province separately. Its a centrally planned government and when those government mandates and edicts filter down to the local level, you’re now encountering the very people Brian mentioned above: Corrupt petty officials, who also lack any sort of technical or policy-driven training.
We heard about the juggernaut that was Japan, Inc. back in the 1980s and this is the same thing. I wouldn’t define China as a bubble, per se, but, rather, another Soviet Union. There was justifiable fear when the Soviets put Sputnik up in 1957, but it was the US that put a man on the moon 12 years later after Kennedy’s call to action.
I’m not a China nay-sayer, but history and the facts lead to a different verdict.
