[quote=ocrenter]2519 Levante in Carlsbad is 4110 sqft and just closed for $800,000. Assuming 20% down of $160k, the mortgage on the $640k at the current 4.5% would be $3200/month.
Back in 2000, its neighbor on 2343 Levante at 4400 sqft sold for $495,000. assuming 20% down, the mortgage would have been $396,000 at 8%, or $2900/month.
Now what about the opportunity cost of the respective down payments? Currently, the CD Index rate is 0.28%, by dropping $160k as the downpayment, the buyer is forgoing $448 in lost interest rate.
In 2000, the CD Index rate was 5.5%, so by dropping that $99k for the downpayment, the buyer was giving up $450 in interest payment per month.
essentially, the cost of buying now and back in 2000 are the same. and this is not even adjusting for inflation.[/quote]
OCR,
The house at 2343 (w/2345) is a duplex with two 3/2 units on either side. The house at 2519 Levante was effectively a 3/2 (downstairs) with a *very nice* loft upstairs, but it is a 3/2 SFH (we had made an offer on it). The duplex would have been the better deal, and I believe the buyer of 2519 overpaid and will lose money if they need to sell it within the next ten years (obviously, they outbid us by a large margin).
The bolded part of your post is very important here, IMHO. This is exactly what I was referring to in my response to sdr — when interest rates are this low for this long, savers/cash holders will be MUCH more willing to part with their money than in a higher rate environment. Everyone who is throwing money around today is making a bet that interest rates will stay low for the duration, and/or are betting on inflation. I honestly see both sides of the inflation/deflation debate, and have always been conflicted about it. Right now, our position is entirely unhedged in favor of deflation (all cash), but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t worry me.
