Not sure if you meant oil sands or oil shale. Oil shale extraction has been thermodynamic nightmare so far.
“As with oil sands, enormous amounts of energy would be needed for both the heating and freezing processes. Rand estimates that a single 100,000-barrel-a-day operation would require a dedicated 1.2-gigawatt electricity generating station–a size that would be comparable to one of the nation’s largest power plants, like the New Hampshire nuclear giant, Seabrook, which serves 900,000 customers.” Need lot of nukes, 10-15 year lead time and $5-10Billion a pop. older USNews article
If that oil process is profitable at $5 up, then wouldn’t new oil supply drive down prices? Then prices would drop below $5 and new process would no longer be profitable. It’s a recursive decision analysis not unlike macroeconomic decision and game theory. Luckily, you don’t need a PhD to figure out this game, just read what Lee Raymond, Goldman and company say in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. Sorry, it is $3K/yr for a subscription. 30 day free trial. http://www.energyintel.com/PublicationHomePage.asp?publication_id=4
