My prediction has never changed since Day 1 when I arrived here over 2 years ago. My prediction was 30% off the peak (+/- a couple %) with a bottom in 2010 or 2011.
I always think of things in terms of my own home which is pretty representative of the overall market here. I believe it is down roughly 20% so far. I see another 15 to 20% from where we are today. Measuring of the peak numbers I see another 10 to 13% down from here.
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
You said that you see the nice 4BR 2 to 3K homes in the area going into the 400 to 500K range and I dont see that. Those homes were 400K+ in the late 90’s and I have trouble seeing them under 600K let alone 500K.
When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).
I know alot of people looking for homes in the most desireable comunities here that are the real deal in terms of income and assets. If I know 10 personally there has got to be at least another 90 that I dont know and thats being conservative. There are several million folks in SD county and I think folks tend to minimize how many are doing fine and will continue to do so. I think they also underestimate the strength of the hands that many of these homes around here are in. When prices are at the bottom I have always contended that it will be very difficult to find the house you want. There will be alot more people waiting to buy those homes then there are people forced to sell them.
