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July 13, 2010 at 1:10 PM #578072
UCGal
Participant

My non-educated, not in the trenches, gut feeling is that it will be flat to trending down. Unless the house has great finishes AND great location AND something else extra like an oversized lot and cul-de-sac location.

I see anecdotal evidence of higher prices on nice houses in good locations. But if the house has any problem with location or fit/finish then it’s trending down.

I follow my neighborhood (south University City) pretty closely. Those houses that have issues are either staying on the market or dropping in price before selling. Those houses that are on quiet streets, back to a canyon, fixed up nice, seem to get a premium.

Here are examples of recent sales.
A house that fetched a premium, IMO… I’ve been inside this house, it’s nice.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100026173-5844_Dirac_St_San_Diego_CA_92122
It’s on a nice, quiet, dead end street, canyon and Mt. Soledad view, nice pool. Lot is 10k sf (typical is 5k in this neighborhood)

Here’s a similarly sized house that sold for more than $100k less, same schools, also a dead end street. Also a large lot… but it was beat inside (had been a rental).
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100020116-4311_Robbins_St_San_Diego_CA_92122

And another house, similar size that sold for less than the premium one…
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100010498-4695_Pauling_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92122
It’s got nice enough finishes (not high end, but nice, clean, etc). Lot is 5k., street is a feeder street for the sub-neighborhood.

Based on seeing things like this – I see some houses going up in value if they have the perfect combination of location, finishes, etc. If the finishes are off, or if the location is less wonderful, the price seems to be declining.

Here’s an example of a house chasing the market down.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100030678-4327_Benhurst_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92122
It’s nice – but the lot size is standard (5k), it backs to the main street, and it’s way overpriced. It’s been listed under 5 different MLS#’s in the past 18 months… chasing the market down. It’s not premium enough to fetch the premium price. Even with $150k off the original list price, it’s not selling.