More evidence (from Gallup) that no candidate should ever count on slackers to put them over the top. A surge in youth voting was one of the foundations of an Obama victory. Now he must rely on blacks and the other members of the traditional Dem base. Enter the PUMAs…
“Update: Little Evidence of Surge in Youth Vote
While Gallup data do suggest that voter turnout among young people will be high this year (as it was in 2004) compared to historical turnout rates, the data do not suggest that it will be appreciably higher than in 2004. Even if more young voters are registered this year, they do not appear to be any more interested in the campaign or in voting in the election than they were in 2004.
Unless turnout rates among older age groups drop substantially from what they were in 2004, young voters should represent about the same share of the electorate as in the last presidential election. And Gallup’s data suggest interest in the campaign and voting are the same or higher among older voters compared to what they were in 2004. ”
