[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.
Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.
Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.
Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.
I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.
