Market priced in 70% chance of interest rate hike tomorrow even with many call for no-hike, so Fed might have to preserve it credibility with go-ahead hike tomorrow. 1 and 3 month treasury bills already baked in the hike into rates. I think they will issue a reduced guidance for 2019 and 2020. Current guidance is 3 hikes in 2019 and 1 in 2020 and new guidance is likely to go down to 1-2 in 2019. I think there is a chance the recession can be pushed back further by a few more years if one hike tomorrow then pause for 2 years without changing.
My take is those people who expect a housing market crash will probably be disappointed for the next a few years. Not all recessions cause housing downturn. A new recession will prompt Fed to reduce rate to 0 again or even to negative territory and a new round of QE will push 10 year treasury rate down below 1%.
