“many investors are either required or expected to earn a yield above a certain percentage”
Are you implying that interest rates should be set at that % or that those investors should have any expectation of such? Rates are a function of the demand for money and fluctuate.
Yes – one reason the Fed might lower rates is to spur investment if everyone is just sitting on cash. This isn’t a manipulation. It’s the Fed’s job.
And again, you’re using the term inflation incorrectly.
“See the correlations between margin debt and stock market bubbles?”
Bubbles, as in plural? The stock market isn’t a bubble right now nor was it in ~2007. Dot com – sure. Investor sentiment will cause margin debt to increase and decrease and there appears to be a reasonable correlation between stock prices. That doesn’t mean everytime margin debt gets high and there’s a correction it was a bubble.
LBO – not a bubble, article clearly states “back to 2008 levels” which was the middle of a recession.
The Forbes article on junk bonds is from a “contributor”, i.e. some guy with an opinion. If you agree with it fine but it’s not fact. Sites like Seeking Alpha, the Oracle one you posted elsewhere and increasingly more mainstream media are allowing the contributor posts or are designed as community sites. They are akin to the Opinion pages in a newspaper.
Meanwhile, bonds continue to rally, mostly due to geopolitical events.
(BTW – it’s odd you’d use Forbes as a reference due to the political “lean” of Steve Forbes. I believe in other threads you’ve attacked “rightwingers” and such)
Yes – “speculators” may have suspected an oil price drop based on increased supply and bet accordingly, so what? Good for them. The same people will look at the history of oil prices and at some point bet that prices will go back up and they will very likely be right.
Buying houses with cash is not indicative of a bubble or speculation. The article is clear that the trend is declining as housing prices have gone up and it’s less of a value play. The fact that the rate of home price growth is declining shows the real estate market is normalizing after a large drop off and then a robust recovery (in certain areas).
Simlar to oil, making an investment based on fundamentals is not speculation. No matter who does it or how large the investment is or where the money came from.
“Yes, a LOT of people are doing this, especially the ones with all the money.”
And if we are to believe the narrative less and less people have any money these days and it’s a small group at the top “with all the money”.
