[quote=livinincali]
It will be a good thing in the longer term but talking about 1 or 2 years when it initially happens will result in a technical recession. Spending on medical care is included in GDP. It will take a bit of time for businesses to make changes due to the reduced cost and will take awhile to show up in GDP.[/quote]
Livinincali, I’m not clear on how you’re defining the medical monopolies mentioned in your last post. I assume you’re thinking if Trump (don’t know how) could instantly dissolve the U.S.’s business models of medical care delivery, it would have a significant impact on the economy. Might be so, but that involves waving a huge magic wand. I don’t think Big Pharma and others would go down without a gigantic multi-year fight. And they’re very well supported by the Republicans so don’t know who would help Trump on that one.
The Moody’s analysis addresses the most influential drivers of the economy, and they’re reporting it’s going to be more than the “technical recession” you predict if Trump is elected. NY Times posted this article today about the Moody’s analysis:
“If all the [Trump’s] policies were put into effect, the report said, the country would be plunged into a recession beginning in early 2018 and remain there into 2020.
“This would be an unusually lengthy recession — even longer than the Great Recession,” the authors write.
Trade would probably be the first area to be affected, Mr. Zandi said. Mr. Trump has proposed a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports and a 35 percent tariff on imports from Mexico. This would drive the price of consumer goods higher, and both countries would probably impose in-kind tariffs, Moody’s predicted.
‘That would do a significant amount of damage pretty quickly — setting off something akin to a trade war,’ Mr. Zandi said.
Mr. Trump’s tax and spending proposals would have a longer-term effect. With few spending cuts, his planned tax cuts, which would reduce federal revenues by roughly $9.5 trillion over a decade, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, would produce substantial budget deficits.
‘That would be a pretty significant corrosive on investment, productivity and then G.D.P.,’ Mr. Zandi said.”
Curious to see how Trump responds to this, if at all. Problem is that his supporters apparently prefer to avoid educating themselves on any of Trump’s proposals, or maybe it’s that they don’t even want to know, as the facts would spoil their rhetoric.
BTW, I’m also looking forward to reading Moody’s analysis of Hillary’s proposals, which the authors say is coming next.
